Written by Adam Bink, Best-Case Scenario Staff
In the beginning of 2024, Spitfire launched Best-Case Scenario, a project to secure safe, healthy civic spaces for everyone. As we approach the end of our first year, one lesson became as clear as any other: preparation is the key to success.
But preparation can feel like an overwhelming task in a more unpredictable world. Our final two Design Studios offered four concrete suggestions for getting to the best-case outcome in 2025. Knowing that this was likely top of mind for many, we engaged two leaders who have deep experience working to cool temperatures and build safer civic spaces: Pastor Carl with Central Christian church in Springfield, and Maria Stephan, co-lead of Horizons Project and chief organizer. Pastor Carl was one of the community leaders responding to the vicious attacks on Haitian immigrants, grounded in lies and disinformation, and Maria is a world-leading researcher who has shown how nonviolent organizing is not just a core element of safe and sound civic spaces — it is even more effective than violence as a response. We hope that the guidance of these seasoned leaders is as helpful, and inspirational, to you as it was to everyone who attended the design studio sessions.
Four lessons for showing up in the new year
- Don’t just plan for the worst case — set up the best case. In Springfield, Pastor Carl built long-standing relationships with leaders in the community over many years so that a network was in place if they needed to respond. This community proved key to keeping temperatures cool. Pastor Carl mentioned that when busloads of out of state extremists and activists showed up, prepared to stir up trouble, they instead encountered large shows of support — from restaurants that cater to the Haitian community to faith leaders standing behind the community and mayors across the state speaking out against hate. While bomb threats and other challenges still came through, temperatures, Pastor Carl emphasized, were a lot cooler than they could have been because of the fact that community pillars knew each other enough to trust one another and act together in key moments.
- Know the skills and leaders in your cohort. Maria highlighted the important role of not just building relationships, but also being strategic and naming the gaps in skills that leaders and communities need to set up the best-case scneario. This work must happen over the course of months or even years. Examples include building relationships with law enforcement, de-escalation training, bridge-building workshops and creating more informal spaces where people can build trust and share information. When the time comes where these specific skills are called for, organizers will be ready—and so are the community members engaged in non-violence.
- When you must respond, make it easy to choose non-violence. We all want safe and sound civic spaces free of violence. When we take our kids to their first protest, we don’t want them exposed to harassment, Molotov cocktails or fistfights. But it can be tempting for people to choose or slip into violence or threats as a first course of response — in part because they aren’t sure what other options are available. Act now to set the tone, build upon the lessons of leaders like Dr. King and Mohandas Gandhi, propose alternatives and expose people to a rich set of tactics they can use. For example, in Maria’s research, activists in Turkey turned lights on and off to protest corruption, activists like L.M. Bogad and Leónidas Martín use theatrical performances and functional art pieces to draw attention and playfully disrupt. By proposing alternatives and showing their effectiveness, we can head off the feeling that escalation naturally leads to more confrontation and elevate non-violent responses as a first course of action.
- When you choose non-violence, it’s not only safer for community members—it’s more effective. Maria’s research in dozens of countries demonstrated that non-violent civic organizing was even more effective than violence. In fact, her research showed that when the conditions are right, as few as 3.5% of the population need to be involved to succeed (in the United States, 3.5% is a few million people). These conditions include preparation and planning such as training and relationship building, as well as consistent civic engagement by the 3.5% over a long period of time.
As we head into 2025, we face the potential for violence and harassment, especially against members of frontline communities. For many, such as transgender individuals and undocumented immigrants, these risks are already here. FBI Director Christopher Wray told Congress last year that hate crimes against Jewish people are at a record high, and Muslim people also face increasing attacks. And of course, we as a nation will grapple with increasing authoritarianism in 2025. We don’t have to accept this as our new normal. We can instead build safer civic spaces and ensure everyone can participate in civic life if we all play our part.An effective response to these challenges must be grounded in non-violence and requires preparation and planning now to keep temperatures cool — and consistent engagement when the time calls for a response. To learn more about the lessons imparted at our Design Studios, check out Maria’s op-ed in Waging Nonviolence.